Natural gas storage inventories decreased by 93 Bcf for the week ending March 9, according to the EIA’s weekly report. The draw was roughly in line with market expectations. Natural gas prices are down from yesterday’s close, with the April contract trading at $2.68 per MMBtu at the time of writing.
Today’s storage withdrawal is higher than last year’s draw of 53 and the five-year average of 87 Bcf. Working gas storage inventories dropped to 1.53 Tcf, which is 718 Bcf below last year and 296 Bcf below the five-year average.
See the chart below for projections of the end-of-season storage inventories as of April 1, the end of the withdrawal season.
This Week in Fundamentals
The summary below is based on PointLogic’s flow data and DI analysis for the week ending March. 15, 2018.
- Dry gas production is up 0.2 Bcf/d week-on-week. The Rockies increased production (+0.2 Bcf/d) as the Bakken started recovering from the freeze-offs of the previous week; the Northeast declined (-0.1 Bcf/d) but was offset by gains in the Southeast (+0.1 Bcf/d).
- Canadian imports are up 0.4 Bcf/d week-on-week due to continued cold weather in the East.
- Domestic natural gas demand is up 0.3 Bcf/d, with Power (+0.7 Bcf/d) increasing, ResCom decreasing (-0.4 Bcf/d), and industrial flat.
- LNG exports are down 0.1 Bcf/d as Cove Point inflows continued to stay low after the first shipment, and Transco flows into the Sabine dipped briefly earlier in the week. Mexican exports are flat week-on-week.
- Total supply is up 0.5 Bcf/d, and total demand is up 0.2 Bcf/d. A slightly lower withdrawal is expected next week. Last year’s withdrawal for the same week was 150 Bcf, while the five-year average is 47.